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Fantasy Baseball Home Stretch: Who plays, who sits?

September 7, 2012 By
Bryce_Harper

I recently had a reader ask me about which player he should play over the course of a week. The two players are Nationals’ teammates Michael Morse and Bryce Harper. We ultimately decided that Harper is the way to go, as he is more likely to steal a base if he reaches. As this is the playoffs in a head-to-head league, that’s an important distinction.

But it got me to thinking about something else. Let’s say that someone else is in a similar quandary, and Harper’s extra steal potential was not a factor. What would he do?

After giving it some thought, I arrived at a scenario: It depends on how you see yourself. Let’s take a deeper look.

 

Scenario 1: You’re the favorite

This is a little easier to determine in a roto league. If you’re being chased, you’re the favorite. In a head-to-head league, you can look at the standings, but they don’t necessarily tell a complete story. In that case, if you don’t trust yourself to make an accurate assessment of whether you’re the favorite or underdog, as someone you trust for their take. Heck, ask one of us, we’ll give you an honest take.

Because if you’re the favorite, Morse is your guy. Of course all of this depends on health, but as Morse started on Tuesday, I am assuming that’s no longer an issue. While Morse is not familiar with being in a playoff race, he’s not a rookie either, which is an important distinction this time of the year.

You see, rookies often fade a little bit at this time of the year, especially if they’ve been up with the big club for most of the regular season, as Harper has. They’re just not accustomed to playing this many games.

Morse is a steadier option because he’s been there before. So, if you’re in this dilemma and see yourself as the one that should prevail, go with the safe bet. Your opponents need to do something extraordinary to beat you, so go with the reliable option and make that option.

 

Scenario 2: You’re the underdog

Since I’m writing about this issue, you probably figured out that there are different answers to the two scenarios. So, I’ll end any suspense and say that if you shouldn’t win, Harper is your guy.

In this spot, you have to be willing to take a chance. Sure, if you’re in second place, maybe you drop to third or fourth, but this is also your best chance to win the whole thing.

It’s quite simple, really. Ask anyone who follows the game who the more talented player between Harper and Morse is, and the answer will be Harper. Ask them who will be the better player five years from now, or even one year from now, and the answer’s Harper. Harper has one of the highest ceilings I have ever seen from a baseball player.

So, in that spot, you gamble. You go with the guy who’s more talented. Yes, between Harper and Morse, Harper is the more likely person to collapse down the stretch, but he’s also the more likely candidate to do something phenomenal. Heck, as we said earlier, he’s even more likely to steal a few bases. He already has more than double Morse’s career stolen bases (Harper 13, Morse  6), and Morse has played in more than four times the amount of games.

Yes, in addition to having a higher ceiling, Harper also has a lower floor, but what does that matter? You’re already in a spot where you shouldn’t win.

Think of this like a golf tournament. If you’re facing the second shot on the par-five 18th hole over water, how are you going to play it?

If you’re nursing a one-shot lead, you’ll probably lay it up and take the water out of play. Sure, you won’t make an eagle and your chances of making birdie are greatly diminished, but you’re taking the bogey out of play, as well.

If you’re trailing, you go for it. Maybe you bring bogey or worse into play, but if you execute that shot, a birdie is nearly in the bag and you have a chance at an eagle. So, maybe you risk falling out of second place, but that’s not what you’re playing for, is it?

So, if you have more to lose than to gain, take the veteran player. In this case, that’s Morse.

If you have nothing to lose and potentially everything to gain, take the gamble. In this case, that’s Harper.

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Fantasy Baseball: A late-season note for non-contenders

September 5, 2012 By
kemp_21

Throughout the course of the season, we’ve talked about an awful lot of things. Some people have agreed with strategy ideas that we’ve laid out, others haven’t. That’s fine. Remember, this is an election year, we need to keep in mind that everyone’s styles won’t always mesh with each other. So, when I talk about streaming for example, I’m more than fine if you don’t like the strategy, or the pitchers I suggest.

There is one area where I do care, and this is not the first time I’ve brought it up. It won’t be the last either. But right now, what I do have is a specific example of why it’s so important.

In a head-to-head league that Nash and I play in, this is the final week of the regular season. At the top of the standings, we have a heated race.  Take a look:

Team Wins Losses Ties Pct. GB
Team 1 126 93 21 .569 –
Team 2 127 94 19 .569 – (Same percentage, loss of the tiebreaker)
Team 3 128 96 16 .567 0.5

We’ll take a look at the opponents for these teams in a second, but first I want to show everyone knows what’s at stake.

  • The regular season champion earns $50, which is twice the buy-in.
  • The top two seeds earn a bye week for the first round of the playoffs. It doesn’t have quite the same impact that a bye week in the NFL does, but as a person who’s both earned a bye in that league and failed to earn it, I can tell you that a mental break is nice.
  • Higher seeds always win a tiebreaker, which has decided the league championship match every year of the league’s history.

Mathematically, there are six teams that can possibly earn the top seed. Realistically, these are the only three that have any chance, so we’ll keep our focus on them. Now, let’s take a look at the three opponents.

Team 1: Seventh place team. Mathematically alive for the playoffs, even if only barely.

Team 2: Last place team. Long since eliminated from any kind of contention.

Team 3: Playoff spot all but assured. Has an outside crack at earning the four seed, but is closer to falling into the sixth position, which is the last team in.

So, from the outside looking in, it appears as though Team 2 is at a big advantage. He’s facing the weakest team in the league and if all three teams repeat their performances against these opponents from earlier in the year, the top spot will be his.

That is not a problem. If all three opponents give their best effort and the opponent for Team 1 just doesn’t have the team to compete, that’s fine. If he gives a good effort, nobody has any right to complain about him.

But if he does things like leave starting pitchers on the bench, or leave injured position players in active spots, the other owners have a gripe. Heck, if the opponents of Team 1 and Team 3 do that kind of stuff, Team 2 has a right to gripe, even if those opponents own better teams.

Nash and I were having a conversation about this league, as we are both owners of a team vying for the top spot. I made the point that someone could win their matchup 8-4 but still end up in the third spot, with no bye week or guaranteed money coming their way.

So, it’s really important for the opponents of teams 1, 2, and 3 to play it out and go hard for the categories that they can win. Maybe that means you lose 8-3-1 as opposed to 9-2-1 but when you have three opponents within a half-game of each other, that’s a potentially huge difference.

Again, you can try to play spoiler and fail. Looking at the records, chances are that that will happen in all three matchups. But you owe it to your league to give it your best efforts in every category you can.

Look, I get it. Anyone who’s played any fantasy sports for long enough knows that in some years and some leagues, you just don’t have it. Maybe you drafted players like Matt Kemp, Evan Longoria, Troy Tulowitzki, or Jose Bautista, and then spent a good amount of the year watching those guys on the DL. Maybe a strategy you tried didn’t pay off, or you’re not as strong of a fantasy player, at least not yet. The reasons don’t matter.

I also understand that the NFL starts on Wednesday night, so fantasy football season is also upon us. That’s also fine. I get that it’s very easy to shift your focus away from a fantasy baseball team that’s going nowhere, but you owe it to your league to keep at least one of your eyes on the league for as long as it takes to set a complete lineup every day.

The bottom line is that at one point, you made the decision to join a fantasy baseball league. When you made that decision, you committed a full year to your league’s members. I;m not saying that you need to go out and make trade offers (assuming you don’t have a trade deadline), or become a super-streamer. But at the least, you have to give it an effort until your season ends. You may not be anywhere near a title, but you do or fail to do will have a big impact on those who are.

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Fantasy Baseball: A late-season note for non-contenders

September 5, 2012 By
kemp_2

Throughout the course of the season, we’ve talked about an awful lot of things. Some people have agreed with strategy ideas that we’ve laid out, others haven’t. That’s fine. Remember, this is an election year, we need to keep in mind that everyone’s styles won’t always mesh with each other. So, when I talk about streaming for example, I’m more than fine if you don’t like the strategy, or the pitchers I suggest.

There is one area where I do care, and this is not the first time I’ve brought it up. It won’t be the last either. But right now, what I do have is a specific example of why it’s so important.

In a head-to-head league that Nash and I play in, this is the final week of the regular season. At the top of the standings, we have a heated race.  Take a look:

Team Wins Losses Ties Pct. GB
Team 1 126 93 21 .569 –
Team 2 127 94 19 .569 – (Same percentage, loss of the tiebreaker)
Team 3 128 96 16 .567 0.5

We’ll take a look at the opponents for these teams in a second, but first I want to show everyone knows what’s at stake.

  • The regular season champion earns $50, which is twice the buy-in.
  • The top two seeds earn a bye week for the first round of the playoffs. It doesn’t have quite the same impact that a bye week in the NFL does, but as a person who’s both earned a bye in that league and failed to earn it, I can tell you that a mental break is nice.
  • Higher seeds always win a tiebreaker, which has decided the league championship match every year of the league’s history.

Mathematically, there are six teams that can possibly earn the top seed. Realistically, these are the only three that have any chance, so we’ll keep our focus on them. Now, let’s take a look at the three opponents.

Team 1: Seventh place team. Mathematically alive for the playoffs, even if only barely.

Team 2: Last place team. Long since eliminated from any kind of contention.

Team 3: Playoff spot all but assured. Has an outside crack at earning the four seed, but is closer to falling into the sixth position, which is the last team in.

So, from the outside looking in, it appears as though Team 2 is at a big advantage. He’s facing the weakest team in the league and if all three teams repeat their performances against these opponents from earlier in the year, the top spot will be his.

That is not a problem. If all three opponents give their best effort and the opponent for Team 1 just doesn’t have the team to compete, that’s fine. If he gives a good effort, nobody has any right to complain about him.

But if he does things like leave starting pitchers on the bench, or leave injured position players in active spots, the other owners have a gripe. Heck, if the opponents of Team 1 and Team 3 do that kind of stuff, Team 2 has a right to gripe, even if those opponents own better teams.

Nash and I were having a conversation about this league, as we are both owners of a team vying for the top spot. I made the point that someone could win their matchup 8-4 but still end up in the third spot, with no bye week or guaranteed money coming their way.

So, it’s really important for the opponents of teams 1, 2, and 3 to play it out and go hard for the categories that they can win. Maybe that means you lose 8-3-1 as opposed to 9-2-1 but when you have three opponents within a half-game of each other, that’s a potentially huge difference.

Again, you can try to play spoiler and fail. Looking at the records, chances are that that will happen in all three matchups. But you owe it to your league to give it your best efforts in every category you can.

Look, I get it. Anyone who’s played any fantasy sports for long enough knows that in some years and some leagues, you just don’t have it. Maybe you drafted players like Matt Kemp, Evan Longoria, Troy Tulowitzki, or Jose Bautista, and then spent a good amount of the year watching those guys on the DL. Maybe a strategy you tried didn’t pay off, or you’re not as strong of a fantasy player, at least not yet. The reasons don’t matter.

I also understand that the NFL starts on Wednesday night, so fantasy football season is also upon us. That’s also fine. I get that it’s very easy to shift your focus away from a fantasy baseball team that’s going nowhere, but you owe it to your league to keep at least one of your eyes on the league for as long as it takes to set a complete lineup every day.

The bottom line is that at one point, you made the decision to join a fantasy baseball league. When you made that decision, you committed a full year to your league’s members. I;m not saying that you need to go out and make trade offers (assuming you don’t have a trade deadline), or become a super-streamer. But at the least, you have to give it an effort until your season ends. You may not be anywhere near a title, but you do or fail to do will have a big impact on those who are.

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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of September 3

September 4, 2012 By
Ross_Detwiler

Welcome back to Dixon’s picks. I’d like to thank Clave for covering for me last week. He did a good job, almost too good of a job. Matt Harvey, Brett Anderson, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Adam Ottavino combined for five wins, 31 strikeouts, a 1.41 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in 38.1 innings. That’s some clean production. As a matter of fact, neither Anderson or Harvey meet the availability requirements anymore. So, nice work, Clave.

Before I get to my picks for this week, I’d like to remind everyone that it’s now September. With the deeper benches that come with the September 1 callups, remember that pitchers will be on a shorter leash. Despite that, if you’ve been relying on the waiver wire all year, you really can’t abandon it now. So, let’s look at some of the better bets this week.

 

Ross Detwiler - Washington Nationals

Probable Starts: vs. Chicago Cubs, vs. Miami Marlins

If you rely on nothing else, you can at least look at this fact. The Nationals are one of the best teams in baseball, while the Cubs and Marlins will be booking tee times in October. So, Ross Detwiler will at least have a good chance to hang up a few wins, which is important.

Looking at the offenses the Nationals will be facing in Detwiler’s starts, you shouldn’t expect many runs to score. The Marlins and Cubs are 28th and 29th in the league in runs scored. In the case of the Cubs, avoid a big swing from Alfonso Soriano and you’re fine In the case of the Marlins, the same logic applies to Giancarlo Stanton.

Nationals Park has some live parts, but Detwiler knows them and is a good enough pitcher to stay away, which explains a solid 3.22 ERA on the season. Again, scowering the waiver wire at this time of the year is all about minimizing your risk, and Detwiler will do just that for you this week.

Detwiler’s Projections for the Week

IP      H      BB      ER      W      K      ERA      WHIP     
14 11 4 5 2 11 3.21 1.07

 

Jeff Locke - Pittsburgh Pirates

Probable Starts: vs. Houston Astros, vs. Chicago Cubs

Again, this is all about minimizing risk at this time of the year. If the Cubs’ current winning percentage holds, they’ll lose right around 100 games this year. If the Astros’ current percentage holds, they’ll lose about 112. Nothing is guaranteed in this great sport, but these will be the first two starts in the young career of Jeff Locke, and the chances aren’t bad that he’ll hang up a few wins.

In the minor leagues, Locke struck out batters at a rate of just under a hitter an inning, which isn’t bad for a starter. While his sample size as a major league reliever is admittedly small, the numbers are good, allowing only one hit in over four innings to the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.

Those teams have their issues, but they are much better than the Astros or Cubs. The Giants just went 5-1 last week against those two teams, and those was in Houston and in Chicago. Locke will be in Pittsburgh both times. This is a good risk to take.

Locke’s Projections for the Week

IP      H      BB      ER      W      K      ERA      WHIP     
13 10 2 3 2 15 2.07 0.92

 

Andrew Werner – San Diego Padres

Probable Starts: at Los Angeles Dodgers, vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

While I know that both the Dodgers and Diamondbacks have good hitters, they’re just not showing it right now. Take a look at the scores of the games from their four game series in Los Angeles over the weekend:

Game 1  2-0 Diamondbacks
Game 2 4-3 Diamondbacks (11 innings)
Game 3 2-1 Dodgers
Game 4 5-4 Dodgers

Neither of these teams are scoring the runs needed to avoid in fantasy ball. Andrew Werner will also get them in pitcher’s parks (Dodger Stadium, Petco Park). He’s also been solid in two starts this year, allowing two runs in six innings each time. Putting a rookie in against two veteran offenses seems risky, but I am looking for at least two quality starts this week from Werner.

Werner’s Projections for the Week

IP      H      BB      ER      W      K      ERA      WHIP     
12 11 2 3 1 10 2.25 1.08

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Last Week Of Fantasy Baseball: Come Get These Players

September 4, 2012 By
Carlos_Gomez

Here we are approaching fantasy baseball’s final week of the regular season which starts on Monday. Therefore, and unfortunately, this will be the final week of waiver wire pickups. Hopefully most of you have made your way into the 2012 fantasy playoffs, which for many leagues, will begin on September 10th. Meantime here are this week’s pickups for you to consider. We hope the past 5 1/2 months of providing you with this feature has helped you & your team. Good luck in the Playoffs!!

Mitch Moreland-1B,OF-Rangers- This is a good news-bad news story for those in need of a player who really has over-achieved this season. The good news, and there’s plenty, is that over the past 2 weeks, Mooreland is the 36th ranked player in Yahoo! leagues. Look at these numbers he’s put up over this period: 3 home runs, 13 RBI, 7 runs scored and a hefty .341 BA. He has 15 HRs in just 250 ABs this season compared to 16 HRs in 464 ABs last year. He batted .259 last season and is currently at .292 this year. Now for the bad news…should you be tempted enough to picked him up keep in mind that he only hits against righties, therefore a certain amount of maintenance will be required. However we think it’s a small risk to pay for the rewards he brings. He’s only owned in 29% of leagues.
Carlos Gomez-OF-Brewers- We’re surprised Gomez is still available in so many leagues at this point in the season, as he provides his owners with both power as well as speed. When the season began he platooned with another speedster Nyjer Morgan but has since been given the starting job against righties as well as lefties. For the season he has stolen 28 bases while hitting 14 home runs. How many players on your team have done something like that? Even though he is batting .320 over his last seven games (1 as a pinch hitter), his batting average, currently at .256, is his only real downfall which shows you that you can’t have everything. Gomez is available in 60% of leagues, so when you’re done reading this go take a look and see if he’s available in your league-just in time for the playoffs.
Eric Stults-SP,RP-Padres-  After being in the majors almost seven years, this SP,RP has finally been given the chance to show what he’s got as a full-time starter and it has been worth the wait! Since getting into the Pods rotation the 1st week of August, Stults has started five games and won…

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3 Up, 3 Down For Next Season

August 30, 2012 By
hosmer_0

In this article, I will be breaking down three young players who will take the next step in the 2013 season, as well as three players who will see their stats take a dip.

3 Up

Eric Hosmer, KC: All the scouts love his tools and ability. After a fantastic rookie season in 2011 (.293, 19 HR, 73 RBI’s), Hosmer has fell into the perverbial sophomore slump. He still has driven in 51 runs so far, and played almost-elite defense. He doesn’t turn 23 until late October, and someday he might lead the young Royals to play games around that same time.

Kyle Seager, SEA: Seager leads the Mariners in almost every offensive category. Now, that might not be saying much, but I like this young offense moving forward. His 15 home runs and 75 RBI’s in an often punchless Seattle lineup leads me to believe there is more in the tank for this third baseman. I can’t wait to see his potential come to fruition.

Chase Headley, SD: I think Chase is on the verge of becoming a great hitter. He has been underrated the last few years as his acension through the Padres system has taken place. He is still only 26 and is putting up numbers that would constitute a hitter about to “figure it out”. Headley has 22 long balls and 80 RBI’s, to go with an OK .276 average. As the Padres continue to put peices around him, look for him to take the leader role by storm and get comfy in the 3-hole for years to come.

3 Down

Willin Rosario, COL: I like this guy for this season, but his power is only outmatched by his less-than-quality .297 OPB. He is also a work in progress behind the dish. I see him as a poor man’s Mark Reynolds moving forward. He’ll get you home runs, but also a headache.

Bryce Harper, WSH: Bryce Harper is going to figure it out….eventually. He has taken some pretty impressive at-bats, as well as some pretty embarrassing ones this season. I like his defensive ability. It’s hard to run down balls in centerfield for a small, fast guy, let alone a big one. He is going to put up all kinds of great stats in his career. I just don’t see it happening this season, or next.

Chris Sale, CHW: You have already heard reports of outstanding lefty Chris Sale tiring out a bit. That is scary for a 23-year-old who is 6’6″, 170 lbs. I just don’t know how long he’ll hold up, especially with his herky-jerky delivery. He has done more than he could have ever been asked to this season, but I need another year of this production before I’m sold on this southpaw.

Ross Parcel
@Ross_Vader
August 29, 2012
MrFantasyFreak.com

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Roto Fantasy Baseball: Beware of the big lead

August 29, 2012 By
kemp_1

In two different roto leagues this year, I’ve seen a team jump out to a seemingly insurmountable lead. In both of those leagues, that team is now in a real fight.

In sports, runaway leads are not necessarily a good thing. The last thing you ever want to do is get comfortable.

I’d like to relay something that I’ve observed as a fan regarding my favorite team, the San Francisco Giants, and their last four playoff appearances.

2000: 97-65 record, National League West Champions, best record in the majors, clinched playoff spot early. Lost 3 games to 1 in the Divisional Series to the Mets.

2002: 95-66 record, National League Wild Card winners. Clinched playoff spot on second to last day of the season. Advanced to World Series before losing a seven-game series to the Angels.

2003: 100-61 record, National League West Champions, second best record in the National League. Clinched playoff spot early. Lost 3 games to 1 in the Division Series to the Marlins

2010: 92-70. National League West Champions. Clinched playoff spot on last day of the season. Won the World Series.

If you’ll notice, the two years where they were in a race until the end of the season, they made deep playoff runs. In the two years where a playoff spot was officially clinched with about two weeks remaining and effectively clinched by mid-August, they didn’t show up in the playoffs. That’s not to take anything away from the teams that beat them, but the Giants were heavily favored in those series.

As a fan, I believe that in 2000 and 2003, they got so comfortable early on and didn’t really have the ability to turn the switch back on when the playoffs rolled around. Conversely, in 2002 and 2010, their opponents fell into a similar trap as the Giants in 2000 and 2003, where the Giants were so used to the heat of a playoff race that the adjustment to the playoffs wasn’t that great. They were already in must-win games for most of September.

In this case, the comparison to fantasy baseball is easy.

If you jump out to a big lead, you almost forget how long the baseball season and fall into a trap. No, you don’t have any say over how your players perform, but you do have a lot of say in what players are on your team and what ones aren’t.

So, where the people behind you are looking for trades and searching the waiver wire in hopes to improve their teams, you’re wrapped up in your big lead, which is giving you a false sense of security.

Who really cares if one of my top players is struggling? I’m still in first place. Or, yeah, that team behind me is making some progress, but I still have a big lead. There’s no need for me to make any moves to keep my own momentum.

That kind of logic works fine if the season ends on June 15. But the baseball season is very long, meaning that while the deficits may be great, the time given to make up said deficits is also great.

If you aren’t starting off in first place, or you’re in first place but with a small lead, you’re constantly trying to improve your team and keeping an eye on the teams around you. With a big lead, it’s too easy to fall into a trap.

Now, I understand that some of you may be saying something like, “Well, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” I can’t say that I don’t understand that approach, but be very careful with it.

If you had a star like Albert Pujols who had an abysmal start to the season but still managed a big lead, then I can see not really looking to improve your team. Even if some of your other players were over-performing early and will fade late, you have to know that a guy like Pujols is going to perform to the numbers on the back of his card, more or less.

On the other hand, a player like Alex Rodriguez is at a different spot of his career. He’s still an effective player, but injuries and age have taken their toll on him. So, if you had him early on surrounded by other early achievers, you’d be foolish to think that he’ll bump his numbers up at the end while the others fall back towards normal. Chances are pretty good in May that he’ll spend some time on the DL throughout the season, which he has. Besides, even if he didn’t get hurt, he’s just not anything close to the Triple Crown threat that we got used to seeing. As Clave has pointed out, you need to know what year you’re in and not get stuck in the past.

Another situation to be constantly afraid of is that one of your stars will get hurt. For example, let’s say that you built a big 2012 lead on the strength of a big start from Matt Kemp. What can possibly go wrong? After all, the guy seems like not only a legit Triple Crown threat, but someone that can also nab 40-50 bases in the process.

You want another situation? Look at Josh Hamilton. He was a real Triple Crown threat early. If you had him carrying the team, you were golden. Well, now he’s hit a bit of a slump and isn’t the kind of guy that will carry a fantasy team.

If you fall into any of the last three groups, you’ve fallen into a false sense of security and are probably in a much tighter race than you thought you’d be in at this point. I’m guessing that you got overconfident, saw why that was a bad idea, while your rivals were finding ways to improve.

Now, I am not saying that you shouldn’t look at the standings early. That’s not only effectively impossible, but also just a bad idea. But you should always run your team as though you’re in a race. The top is a lonely place to be, as you are in the cross hairs of every one of your league’s rivals. Running your team as though you’re in a race gives your opponents a moving target to chase. If your rivals don’t know what they have to do and you have a big lead, you’re going to win the league and probably easy. But if you stay stagnant and give others a clear view of what they need to do, you’re going to get caught.

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Fantasy Baseball Late Season Pickups

August 29, 2012 By
chase_Utley_1

Late Season Fantasy Baseball Pickups

Fantasy Football has taken over but I’m still very much in contention for a fantasy baseball title in 4 out of my 5 leagues. We won’t talk about the other league. Especially when that team deals with Evan Longoria, Matt Kemp and Giancarlo Stanton injuries all year. But we’re not going to talk about that today. If we did talk about it, I would tell you how everyone else on the team exceeded expectations and my big name guys can’t figure out how to slide (Longoria) or can’t rehab the proper way (Kemp). Moving on.

I just recently made a handful of pickups that should help my teams down the stretch and in the fantasy playoffs. These are some of my newly acquired players:

 

Jhoulys Chacin COL SP
Yes, he’s back and yes I picked him up in every league on week before he came off the DL.
Chase Utley PHI 2B
I picked up Utley in one league. He was more of a fill in for me when Infante and Zobrist have days off.
Jonathan Lucroy MIL C
He’s cheap production at catcher. I have him backing up Jesus Monteroin my keeper league.
Brett Anderson OAK SP
You think I’m not going to pick him up after ranking him #163 in my Top 250 Keeper Rankings?
Greg Holland KC RP
I needed saves in a couple leagues. He was fair value and by fair value I mean a waiver wire pickup.Tood Frazier CIN 1B
I snagged him in a few leagues two weeks ago. When Votto comes back he’ll be dropped.

 

Chris Davis BAL 1B
Yes, I had him when he cranked 3 bombs in one game last week. I am worried he may hit the DL soon.
Brandon Morrow TOR SP
I had to grab him a week before he came off the DL. He had 7 K’s in his first start despite getting the loss.If you are curious, I have one final set of rankings that should be coming out within the next few weeks. Expect my next Hitter, Pitcher and Relief Ranks out before the fantasy playoffs get here.Out of my 5 ten team leagues I currently hold the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th and 6th spots. I’m still not panicking, I’m built for the postseason. If you don’t believe me I have two words for you… Jhoulys Chaaaaaacccciiiiinnnn!!!!!!!!!!!!!Alex Wiesner
August 28th, 2012
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Fantasy Baseball: Examining Values of PED Players

August 24, 2012 By
melky_4

As Melky Cabrera has reminded us, we can’t believe that everything we see on the baseball diamond is legit. As a fan of the game, it’s extremely frustrating, I know. If you’re a fan of the American League team that wins the pennant, I wouldn’t blame you if your anger doesn’t come out until October, as the All-Star Game MVP had a lot to do with the National League’s victory, even if Melky wasn’t doing any of the pitching.

But, this is a fantasy site. If you want my opinions on this stuff, feel free to contact me in any way you know how and I promise you, you’ll get them. Right here, right now, we have to view this kind of thing from a fantasy perspective. No, not potential replacements for Cabrera, not again anyway. But five games into the 2013 season (or even less if the Giants make the playoffs), Melky will be back in uniform for some team. PED’s or not, he was leading the league in hits and batting .346, so I’m guessing he’ll not only begin the year as a starter, but also batting high in some lineup.

Now, I often say that fantasy baseball is not a morality play. Here are a few examples of people looking ridiculous making it such.

  • I often see owners make terrible trades or draft selections to avoid having Yankees on their teams. That’s just stupid and it can really actually hurt the integrity of the league, or end up making one team a complete juggernaut.
  • We had a reader comment on a piece that Clave wrote telling us that a Giants’ fan in his league put Hanley Ramirez on the waiver wire as soon as he was traded to the Dodgers. While I have some pride in a fellow Giants’ fan taking such a stance, that is an idiotic move.

Basically, you have to look past your own biases as a fan to put the best fantasy team out there. It’s one thing if you think a player is vastly overrated (like myself with Kevin Youkilis), it’s quite another to acknowledge how good a player is, only to turn around and act like you’re making some moral stance by trading giving up Robinson Cano for J.P. Arencibia because you inherited a team in a keeper league with a Yankee on it.

But when it comes to players who have had PED issues, the situation isn’t as clear. If the person’s going to be putting up massive numbers, you want him on your team, no matter how those numbers were accomplished. Believe me, if he’s not on your team, he’ll be on someone else’s.  But how much were those numbers aided? Theoretically, you have to believe that a player once caught will spend some time keeping it clean. So what kind of numbers can you bank on?

First, let’s look at Cabrera. We’ll round up and call him a career .267 hitter before 2011. The 2011 and 2012 seasons added 17 points to his batting average. He hit .305 in 2011 and was at .346 in 2012 before being suspended. In 2011, Cabrera had 201 hits and he was well on his way to eclipsing 200 again in 2012.

While he never tested for anything in 2011, you have to wonder what created the spike. How does a guy who was nothing more than a poor man’s Shane Victorino turn into one of the best hitters in the league? I mean, Cabrera’s not old, but it wasn’t like he was a youngster in 2011 just finding his groove. I certainly can’t be the only one wondering this. That’s a tremendous spike in production.

Logically, you would have to think that Cabrera will no longer be using PEDs when he gets back in 2013. While I know that PEDs aren’t the only reason Melky has been so effective, his fantasy stock in 2013 has dropped a ton in my eyes. If he’s rated as a Top-25 outfielder in our rankings next year, it will be done over my protest.

Even in 2011 and 2012, Cabrera’s power numbers weren’t great. He hit 18 homers in 2011, which was his career high and would likely not have been reached in 2012, even had the suspension not hit. In terms of stolen bases, his career high was 20. While the Melk Man’s never been a bad player, he was anything more than a fourth outfielder in a deep league before 2011. When he returns to the field in 2013, I wouldn’t look for anything more than that.

But depending on your faith in the appeals process, the argument isn’t exactly closed.

Now, let’s focus our attention on 2011 NL MVP, Ryan Braun. In my eyes, this is a completely different situation. First of all, I would be irresponsible (along with other things) if I didn’t say that his positive test and suspension were overturned. It’s also worth noting that that had never happened before with someone who tested positive for a banned substance. So for me personally, I have no reason to disbelieve Braun’s innocence. Still, I understand that many of you may not believe that he’s truly innocent. So, let’s have a look at his value.

While his 2012 batting average is a little low compared to his career mark, Braun is still hitting a respectable .299 and leads the league in home runs. Mind you, this is his first season without Prince Fielder as a bashing mate. If you don’t want to believe Braun’s innocence and plan to continue a moral stance by keeping him off of your fantasy team, you’re only shooting yourself in the foot. This guy is one of the best pure hitters of this generation. He also won’t be 30 until after the 2013 World Series, so there’s no real reason to believe he’s slowing down.

In a nutshell, if he was on Performance Enhancing Drugs, they weren’t enhancing his performance a heck of a lot.

Other players are a little more tricky. In 2009, we learned that Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez both had PEDs in their past, and neither has been the same player since. Then again, Ramirez turned 37 during that season, while Rodriguez turned 34. It’s not exactly uncommon for players of that age to start declining. Also, Rodriguez never tested positive in his career. His revelation came from an admission that he used PEDs before his career ever began. If they actually stopped there, who knows how much influence they had on him in the first place?

Obviously, Ramirez is out of the game. Braun will continue to put up MVP-caliber numbers. A-Rod was once a great player, but age has caught up with him. He still has some fantasy value, but don’t look for anything more than his 2011 and 2012 production. In other words, don’t draft him without a backup option, because Rodriguez will spend time on the DL.

But what about Mr. Cabrera?

In a lot of ways, Melky will really be the first of his kind. A player who’s had two fairly different careers. From 2006-2010, he was a nice player, but let’s mix and match those seasons to see what his best fantasy numbers were.

75 runs (2006), 13 homers (2009), 73 RBI (2007), 13 steals (2007), .280 average (2006).

That’s more or less what I am expecting out of Melky in 2013. During August of 2013, he’ll turn 29.

Putting this into perspective, taking a look at one outfielder from the 2011 season, I see fairly comparable numbers.

72 runs, 15 homers, 73 RBI, 12 steals, .284 average. 

Would anyone care to venture a guess as to what outfielder put those numbers up in 2011?

Take a minute.

Are you ready?

Cool, let’s do it.

Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles.

As I sit and think about this Nick Markakis is about right. Much like Cabrera before 2011, Markakis is not a bad player, but if your fantasy team is counting on him as a catalyst, you are in rough shape. As I look back at our 2012 Draft Kit, we had Markakis ranked as our 32nd best outfielder. Depending on where free agency takes him, that’s pretty much where the Melk Man will likely be ranked in 2013.

So, if you’re stuck in a bad season and already planning for next year’s draft and wondering what to expect from Cabrera, think about Nick Markakis. Of course, he could do better than expected, so could Markakis. But if you’re expecting a guy who’ll step in and contend for a batting title while being a borderline MVP candidate, you’re leaving yourself open for some serious disappointment.

 

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Fantasy Baseball: Filling the void from Melky Cabrera’s suspension

August 16, 2012 By
melky_1

As a Giants fan, I really don’t want to restate this, so if you’re not familiar with the story, you can read it here from Major League Baseball’s Twitter page.

BREAKING: Giants OF Melky Cabrera suspended 50 games without pay after testing positive for Testosterone, a performance-enhancing substance.

— MLB (@MLB) August 15, 2012

Again, as a Giants fan, I am irritated beyond belief. But as a fantasy owner, I don’t have Melky Cabrera on any of my teams, so I think I’m okay to give some advice on some names that those who own the Melk Man can look for as a replacement.

Since Cabrera has eligibility at all three outfield positions, let’s take a look at one left fielder, one center fielder, and one right fielder.

 

Left Field: David Murphy, Texas Rangers

As players like Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz have dealt with injury issues over the last few years, David Murphy has seen the field quite a bit and done pretty well, so we’re not just looking at a replacement player here. While the power numbers aren’t spectacular, they’re also not a huge downgrade over Melky, as Cabrera has 11 homers in 459 at-bats, while Murphy has 10 in 295.

Over the last 30 days, Murphy is also batting .350, which trumps Cabrera’s .327 average over the same window. Also keep in mind that Texas is a much more favorable parks for hitters than San Francisco and while the American League West is the best division for pitching in the AL, it doesn’t quite stack up to the NL West.

In 2010, I had Hamilton, who missed a good amount of the last month with an injury. In his absence, I brought in Murphy, who filled in quite admirably, and I still won the league. This is a similar situation, and it wouldn’t be a bad idea to give Murphy the same chance in 2012 filling in for Cabrera. He’s available in nearly 90 percent of ESPN leagues and is becoming more of an everyday player now. In Texas’ lineup and home park, his numbers aren’t likely to drop off significantly coming home.

 

Center Field: Jon Jay, St. Louis Cardinals

In this case, there is more of a noticeable drop in power, but again, I doubt Melky’s value to you is as a basher. Jon Jay is just a really good hitter and while he’s generally been a spot starter, Jay has been starting in the Cardinals’ outfield for most of the last month. Over that last month, he’s hit .353 and swiped six bags.

As is the case with Murphy, Jay has some great chances to hit and produce numbers. The National League Central is hitter-friendly. The Cardinals are fourth in the league in runs scored, which makes sense when you consider that they have MVP candidates Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday on the team, along with solid bats David Freese and Allen Craig.

The concern in St. Louis is finding at-bats, but with Lance Berkman out, Jay easily belongs in the starting lineup every day. Jay has hit safely in each of his last eight games and has recorded two or more hits in six of them. More importantly, he’s available in 68 percent of ESPN leagues, so this is a wagon I’d be jumping on.

 

Right Field: Garrett Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates

Unlike the other players, Garrett Jones is a significant power upgrade from Cabrera. The issue with him has always been his average, as Jones has never played over 100 games in a season and hit better than .250. That doesn’t seem to be the case this year, as he’s hitting at .282 on the year, and .319 over the last month.

The other thing that makes Jones valuable is Andrew McCutchen, who is my vote for the NL MVP. With him in the lineup, Jones will have plenty of RBI opportunities. The average would be a bit of a drop, but the extra power makes up for it. If a guy like Jones is above about .270, he’s a very valuable player, as the power numbers are going to be there.

 

What makes all of these players especially valuable is that they’re all on contending teams. Veterans on non-contenders can tend to get shut down at this time of the year, especially if they’ve dealt with injury issues. But all three of these teams have something to play for so as long as they’re healthy, these players will be in the lineup. You may get a drop from what Cabrera has done this year, but all three of these guys can help keep the train moving.

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